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Overall risk of extreme events in the California and WECC Transmission Systems

The Extreme Event Research is planned to develop a deeper understanding of cascading outages.

In Phase I, it begins with a simpler, hypothetical system to develop and adapt efficient mathematical techniques.  In Phase II, the results of this research will then be applied to a complete network model for California, analyzing potential extreme events, with broader participation by IOUs and CAISO.

The research team covers a broad range of technical issues and will grow a strong foundation of researchers for this critical research topic.

The following are the approaches and objectives to be achieved in both phases of the research:

  1. Ask and answer key research questions with respect to extreme events.

  2. Start with a smaller research project to validate research assumptions and "use cases" before committing larger funding to the more comprehensive approaches.

  3. Nurture cooperation, idea generation, and modeling support between team members.

  4. Develop new approaches that are mathematically efficient and improve understanding of events by technical as well as policy participants.

  5. Recognize potential security sensitivity of meetings and findings.

 6.  Accomplish in Phase I:

-Use and improve competing limited size models to try the extreme event mathematical techniques, based on a simplified California network.

-Find new ways to communicate extreme event risk including: propagation rates, critical events identifications, expected event frequency, network "brittleness", and probability of occurrence, which embrace a probabilistic sampling approach to the complex problems.

-Along with other models, explore ways to leverage TRELSS for modeling events, using limited size models.

-Develop a methodology for describing extreme event risk and expected frequency for California.


   7. Defer the following until Phase II:

-Significant industry involvement

-Full blown WECC modelsc.Implementation of applications (e.g. RAS)

-Extreme Event Model(s) trainingA simplified version of the WSCC Network

This research is sponsored by the California Energy Commission. The Institutions participating are: EPRI, Southern Company, Alaska University, Wisconsin University, BACV Solutions, LBNL, and KEMA.

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